Dr. Sarah Joseph

The logistician at a major humanitarian food aid organization (HFAO) is facing the decision whether to source globally or locally. The logistician is overseeing the distribution of a common fortified food product, a maize-soy blend (MSB), to a refugee camp in Africa. The main task of this case study is to evaluate the two potential sourcing options (globally versus locally), potentially by conducting a life cycle assessment of the two potential food supply chains. One possibility is to get the product locally, from the same country or region in Africa. The alternative would be to go global and receive the product from a supplier in Europe. The HFAO is concerned about their environmental impact. Advantages and disadvantages of local vs global procurement must be considered and carefully weighted, to identify which one is more sustainable. After all, the HFAO wants to champion sustainability, and add socioeconomic and environmental value to its aid operations.

Shifting the food system to a more sustainable one requires changes on both sides of the supply chain, with the consumer playing a key role. Therefore, understanding the factors that positively correlate with increased organic food sales over time for an entire population can help guide policymakers, industry, and research to increase this transition further. Using a statistical approach, we developed a spatial pooled cross-sectional model to analyze factors that positively correlate with an increased demand for organic food sales over 20 years (1999–2019) for an entire region (the city-state of Hamburg, Germany), accounting for spatial effects through the spatial error model, spatially lagged X model, and spatial Durbin error model. The results indicated that voting behavior strongly correlated with increased organic food sales over time. Specifically, areas with a higher number of residents that voted for a political party with a core focus on environmental issues, the Greens and the Left Party in Germany. However, there is a stronger connection with the more “radical” Left Party than with the “mainstream” Green Party, which may provide evidence for the attitude-behavior gap, as Left Party supporters are very convinced of their attitudes (pro-environment) and behavior thus follows. By including time and space, this analysis is the first to summarize developments over time for a metropolitan population while accounting for spatial effects and identifying areas for targeted marketing that need further motivation to increase organic food sales.

We compute degrees of food self-sufficiency for regions in North Germany with the city state of Hamburg at the centre, given different diets (the German average diet versus increasing substitution of legumes for meat) and production methods (conventional versus organic). Triangulating data of statistical databases, literature, and our own collection, we compute land footprints per capita and multiply by regional populations. Our findings indicate that there is great potential to feed the regional community surrounding Hamburg solely with regionally, organically grown foods, but this result depends on (1) composition of diets — specifically, the per capita meat consumption – and (2) agricultural area available in the defined region. On the basis of simplifying assumptions, the computation indicates an approximation of what is possible.